Posts in Research
APRIL’S JOBS REPORT A POSITIVE FOR REAL ESTATE, BUT SIGNS FOR CAUTION AHEAD

Labor market continued to grow in April. Employers created 253,000 positions in April, up from the 165,000 jobs added in March but below the year-to-date monthly average of 285,000. Hiring last month spanned most sectors, ranging from technical health care and professional services roles to hourly restaurant positions. April’s employment growth, paired with a reduction in...

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TEMPERING JOB CREATION MAY HERALD LESS INFLATION

Employers continuing to hire, but at tapering pace. The economy welcomed 236,000 new positions in March, the slowest month for job creation since a net loss in December 2020. Hiring was led by the leisure and hospitality sector, along with additions in health care, the public sector, and professional and business services. These gains offset job losses ...

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MULTIFAMILY COULD FEEL IMPACT OF STUDENT LOAN REPAYMENT

In February, the Supreme Court heard arguments on the legality of federal student loan forgiveness, and repayment will begin 60 days after a decision is announced. The return of this fixed expense that many households have not contended with in three years will likely weigh on consumer spending, stacking on top of existing inflation pressure and recessionary fears…

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SCARCITY OF STARTER HOMES IS KEEPING PRICES AFLOAT AND SUSTAINING BARRIERS

Millennial flow to homeownership postponed. The age 28- to 34-year-old subset is among the largest population groups by size, and will play an important role for the multifamily sector going forward. This bulky cohort was responsible for strong apartment demand over the past decade, as they started their careers and formed households. Now, many are reaching a life period that historically correlates with growing their households and transitioning...

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RENTAL POPULATION TRENDS

Millennial flow to homeownership postponed. The age 28- to 34-year-old subset is among the largest population groups by size, and will play an important role for the multifamily sector going forward. This bulky cohort was responsible for strong apartment demand over the past decade, as they started their careers and formed households. Now, many are reaching a life period that historically correlates with growing their households and transitioning...

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FINANCIAL MARKETS: BANKING SHOCK RESPONSE

Banking turmoil may encourage the Fed to tread carefully. Over the past year the Federal Reserve has aggressively increased interest rates in a bid to cool infl ation, creating challenges for commercial real estate investors and lenders. Messaging from the Fed prior to the recent bank failures implied ...    

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NEW TAX ON REAL ESTATE TRANSACTIONS NEGATIVELY IMPACTS SALES

• New tax imposes minimum financial impacts of $200,000 on transfer of property priced over $5 million and $550,000 on property priced above $10 million.

• Cost of taxation could be recaptured through price appreciation — historical data implies average of three or more years, depending on property type.

• Investors may look elsewhere in the Los Angeles metro or to other markets to avoid additional tax burden

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FED HIKES AGAIN, COMPLICATING TRADES

Federal Reserve lifts rates again, adjusts guidance. The Federal Open Market Committee implemented its sixth rate hike of the year on November 2, raising the federal funds rate by a fourth consecutive 75-basis-point margin. In fewer than eight months, the FOMC has taken the target range on the overnight rate from a lower bound of zero to an upper limit of 4.0 percent, the...

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FIRST-TIME HOMEBUYERS ARE BEING SHUT OUT OF THE MARKET LIKE NEVER BEFORE

If you bought your first home during the past year, consider yourself one of the fortunate few.

Skyrocketing home prices and climbing interest rates pushed the share of first-time homebuyers to an all-time low, according to a new report from the National Association of Realtors. And those first-time buyers were the oldest they have ever been, as the growing lack of affordability forced people to wait longer to reach life milestones like buying a home.

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